'Thailapura' shock for AIADMK: Who benefits from BJP-BMC alliance?
By Mariammal, Published on 5 months ago, 516 Views
Tags : #Thailapura
'Thailapura' shock for AIADMK: Who benefits from BJP-BMC alliance? CHENNAI : An agreement was signed today between the BJP and the Communist Party of India to form an alliance for the Lok Sabha elections. Of this, 10 constituencies have been allotted to Bamako. While it was expected that the BMC would join the alliance with the AIADMK, the BJP-BMC alliance gave a shock last night by holding talks. AIADMK and BJP have made serious efforts to include the BAM, which has a significant vote bank in the northern districts of Tamil Nadu, in their alliance. AIADMK ex-ministers held talks with the BJP and promised to give 7 constituencies and one Rajya Sabha seat like last time. Meanwhile, senior BJP leaders VK Singh, Kishan Reddy and others who held talks with Anbumani assured that they will give 10 constituencies and one Rajya Sabha member post and after the re-establishment of the government, they will discuss and decide on the post of Union Minister. While the talks were held on both sides, the BJP-BMC has now signed an alliance agreement, raising expectations as to which side the BMC will move to.
Who is good and bad for whom?: If we look at who is bad, all hands turn to AIADMK. The EPS-led AIADMK took a heavy blow in the southern districts due to giving 10.5 percent reservation to the Vanniars in the last assembly elections. EPS had pulled towards the Bamagawa alliance, knowing in advance that it would not win in the southern districts due to Vanniyar reservation. This has been fruitful. Beyond the Kongu belt, the AIADMK had won significantly in the northern districts and saw the defeat in the Legislative Assembly as an honorable defeat.
BJP was also in alliance with AIADMK in the last assembly elections. Due to the bitterness of the BJP state leadership, the AIADMK had to bid farewell to the BJP and there was a rift in this alliance. After pushing the BJP aside, the EPS tried to keep only the BAM on its side. Lok Sabha election accounts are another reason why EPS wants to keep BMC on its side.
AIADMK also has considerable influence in the northern districts , similar to BAM . They had been in intensive negotiations with BAMAKA for more than ten days, thinking that if BAMAKA would be on their side, they would win the North-West districts along the Kongu Belt. AIADMK Information about the talks also said that concessions including a Rajya Sabha seat would be offered on a 7+1 basis. But, putting an end to these, the BJP has united in the National Democratic Alliance.
At present AIADMK is holding only DMUD. It is still being extended uncertainly as Premalatha is conditionally saying that he wants a Rajya Sabha seat. The BJP-BMA alliance is disadvantageous to the AIADMK in terms of vote percentages and victory.
If we look at who will benefit from this alliance, it will be Bamagawa first. Due to repeated failures, Pamaga is forced to retain the mango symbol. As the BJP alliance is currently contesting in ten constituencies, it may be leaning towards the BJP alliance as it calculates that if it gets at least one percent of the votes, it can retain the symbol. Because it is noteworthy that the AIADMK side offered to give only up to seven constituencies to the BAM.
Meanwhile, beyond this election victory, the BJP is aiming to get a higher percentage of votes in Tamil Nadu. Since it has not been able to gain a foothold in Tamil Nadu in the past, the party is aiming to get a higher vote percentage in this election in order to respond to the criticism. The BJP reckons that the BMC alliance will definitely help. BMC has a significant vote bank in northern districts. BJP may try to increase its vote share by keeping BAM in northern districts.
AIADMK and BJP have formed a separate alliance to compete, and the DMK alliance has made additional gains. If BAMK joins AIADMK, DMK will have a tough competition in northern districts. There is a situation where the AIADMK is on its own in the current three-way competition. This will lead to division of votes in northern districts. The DMK alliance has been strong for ten years. There has been no major ruckus in the alliance since the division of seats. The DMK alliance is happy that the BJP has formed an alliance with the BMC as it will be easier to win if their alliance gets the right number of votes.
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